A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



U.S. WLI Edges Up

A gauge of the U.S. economy rose in the latest week, but geopolitical concerns continue to shake business and investor confidence, according to a report released on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute said its weekly leading index rose to 119.1 in the week ended Feb. 28 from 118.7 in the prior week.

The index's growth rate, which smoothes out weekly fluctuations, fell to -1.0 percent from -0.5 percent.

"We have a tug of war between people buying houses against expectations and the nervousness businesses and investors have," said Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI managing director. "It's clear that geopolitical concerns remain a worry."

The Weekly Leading Index is composed of a balance of seven major economic indicators. ECRI designs short- and long-term indexes aimed at predicting business cycles, recessions and recoveries in the world's leading economies.