A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



U.S. Weekly Leading Index in Tailspin

A measure of future economic growth in the United States fell to its lowest in more than 13 years and its annualized growth rate hit a new low, indicating the economic downturn has yet to reach its trough, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said the annualized growth rate of its Weekly Leading Index fell in the week ending November 21 from negative 28.2 percent to minus 29.2 percent, a new low according to data recorded since 1949.

"With the drivers of the business cycle still in a tailspin WLI growth has fallen to another historical low, indicating that there is no economic recovery in sight," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

The WLI level fell to 106.8, a low not reached since July 7, 1995...