A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



U.S. Weekly Leading Index

The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), meanwhile, said yesterday that the US economy will skirt a return to recession as long as sagging business confidence does not push employers into embarking on a fresh round of corporate layoffs.

The institute's weekly gauge of US economic activity inched up to 118.2 in the week to Oct 4 from 118.0 the previous week. But its growth rate fell to minus 2.1 per cent from minus 1.2 per cent in the preceding week.

Dismal business confidence stemming from the recent sharp stock market slide is offsetting mild improvements in the real economy, said Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI managing director."