A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



U.S. Recession Will Persist for the Time Being

A measure of future economic growth in the United States and its annualized growth rate rose in the latest week but were still near all-time lows, a sign that an end to the recession is still out of sight, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose in the week ended Dec. 26, to 108.0 from 106.8 in the previous week, which was revised from 106.6.

The index's annualized growth rate ticked up to negative 28.7 percent from minus 29.2 percent.

"Despite a three-week uptick, WLI growth remains close to its all-time low seen in early December, which tells us that the recession will persist for the time being," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI...