A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



U.S. Inflation Pressures Edge Up

U.S. inflation pressures edged up in July... a report by a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge, designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, rose to 119.3 in July from an upwardly revised 118.3 in June, originally reported as 117.8.

"Despite its latest uptick, the (gauge) remains in a cyclical downswing, suggesting that cyclical inflation concerns are premature," said ECRI managing director Lakshman Achuthan.

The index's rise was partly offset by disinflationary moves in measures of jobs and real estate loans, the report said.

The gauge's annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, increased to minus 1.7 percent from minus 3.8 percent in June, revised from negative 4.2 percent.