A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

A monthly gauge of U.S. inflation pressures continued to climb in November to a 14-month high... a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, rose to 95.7 in from an upwardly revised 93.0 in October, which was originally reported as 91.7.

It was the eighth straight month the index has risen, suggesting U.S. inflation pressures "are beginning to simmer," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

The November USFIG annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, spiked to 26.8 percent from 20.2 percent in October, which was revised higher from 17.3 percent.