A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

An index designed to anticipate cyclical turning points in inflation increased in October after a downward-revised decrease in September.

At the same time, a smoothed version of the annualized growth rate increased to 3.4% from a downward-revised 1.9% in the prior month.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute said Friday that its Future Inflation Gauge increased to 118.2 in October from a revised 117.3 in September...

"The U.S. future inflation gauge is still near its springtime high," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI . "Thus, inflation pressures are still elevated, even though a strong pickup in economic growth remains unlikely."

Weekly updates of the index are released only to subscribers.