A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Near 6-Yr Low

U.S. inflation pressures fell in July to a near six-year low... a report said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, slipped to 112.4 in July from 114.9 in June, revised from 115.2.

The reading was the lowest since August 2002, when the index stood at 110.7 according to ECRI data.

"With the USFIG falling to a new 71-month low, underlying inflationary pressures are in a decisive cyclical downswing," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI, in an instant message interview.

The USFIG annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, fell in July to minus 7.6 percent from minus 4.4 percent in June, revised down from negative 3.9 percent.