A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Falls

U.S. inflation pressures fell in December to a four-month low..., according to a report on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge, which is designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, fell to 121.3 from an upwardly revised 122.4 in November but was up from 118.7 a year earlier.

"If it keeps falling, it would indicate a cyclical downswing in underlying inflation pressures," the report said.

The index's annualized growth rate, which smoothes out monthly fluctuations, fell to 1.6 percent from an upwardly revised 3.8 percent in November.

Still, there were price pressures in December..., according to Lakshman Achuthan, managing director for ECRI.