A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Edges Up

U.S. inflation pressures rose slightly in April after hitting a 51-year low in March, indicating policymakers should continue to focus on economic growth, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, rose to 78.2 in April from revised 77.9 in March.

"The USFIG is still near March's 51-year low, affirming that inflation is far from being a near-term concern," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

The USFIG annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, fell in April to minus 33.7 percent from a revised minus 38.0 percent in March.