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During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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U.S. FIG Remains Flat


Inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy were steady in May compared with April but the overall trend in inflation is downward, a report showed on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute said its Future Inflation Gauge, designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, was flat at 116.6 last month after a periodic revision brought April's figure to the same level.

But the index's annualized growth rate, which evens out monthly fluctuations, fell to 3.7 percent in May from 6.0 percent in April.

"In the wake of the recent slowdown, the index has backed off February's 32-month high, consistent with a near-term decline in inflation," ECRI said in a statement.