A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



U.S. FIG Moves Higher

Inflationary pressures in the United States jumped up in August, a report showed on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's Future Inflation Gauge, which is designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, rose to 117.6 in August from a revised 115.6 in July, the research group said.

"We should not dismiss the risk of an inflation upturn in the next couple of months," ECRI managing director Lakshman Achuthan told Reuters.

The ECRI report runs counter to comments concerning inflation from Federal Reserve Governor Ben Bernanke on Thursday. "As I see it, the persistence of economic slack even as growth picks up makes it likely that inflation will remain low and in some scenarios, may fall still further," he told a news panel.

The index's annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, recovered somewhat to -1.0 percent in August from a revised -1.3 percent in July.

The ECRI Future Inflation Gauge is a widely watched indicator of future price increases.