A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



U.S. FIG Jumps

As the nation's manufacturing sector continues to emerge in June from a year-and-a-half-long slump, the Future Inflation Gauge begins to rise.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's Future Inflation Gauge jumped to 101.7 last month from 99.1 in May, ECRI said.

"The rise in the (inflation index) was driven by the biggest six-month spurt in the growth rate of (industrial prices) since 1973, reflecting the prospects for the global industrial revival," the report said. "As a result, the rise in U.S. inflationary pressures is beginning to accelerate." The annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, soared to 5.5 percent in June from -0.4 percent in May.