A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



U.S. FIG Dips in April

An index designed to anticipate cyclical turning points in inflation decreased for the first time in four months in April.

At the same time, a smoothed version of the annualized growth rate fell to 0.9% from 3.8% in the prior month.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute said Friday that its Future Inflation Gauge decreased to 117.1 in April from an upwardly revised 119.1 in March...

"Despite the latest dip in the U.S. future inflation gauge, it remains well above its December 2003 low," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI . "In sum, U.S. inflation pressures remain in a cyclical upturn."

Weekly updates of the index are released only to subscribers.