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During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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U.S. FIG at 11-Month High


A monthly gauge of U.S. inflation pressures continued to rise in September to an 11-month high, suggesting an upswing in prices expected in an economic recovery, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, rose to 90.6 in September from an upwardly revised 89.7 in August, which was originally reported at 89.6.

"The upturns in the USFIG and its components have become fairly pronounced, pervasive and persistent. Thus, while this is not yet a significant policy concern, U.S. inflation is on the cusp of a cyclical upswing," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

Achuthan recently told Reuters that if the FIG continues to climb, the Fed's exit strategy may come into play sooner than expected.

The September USFIG annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, spiked to 12.1 percent from 6.6 percent in August, which was revised higher from 6.5 percent.
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