A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



U.S. Economy Will Not Recover Soon

A measure of U.S. future economic growth and its annualized rate fell in the previous week, indicating the economy will not recover in the near future, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 106.1 for the week ending Jan. 30, from 107.3 in the previous week.

The index's annualized growth rate also declined, to negative 24.7 percent from negative 24.0 percent.

"With the WLI falling for the fourth straight week, almost to its cycle low, an economic recovery is not in sight," said Melinda Hubman, research associate at ECRI...