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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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U.S. Economy to Stay in Recession


A measure of U.S. future economic growth fell while its annualized growth rate ticked up in the latest week, but both remain deep in recession territory, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell in the week ending Jan 16 to 107.4 from 108.7 in the previous week, initially reported as 108.6.

The index's annualized growth rate ticked up to negative 24.4 percent from negative 25.2 percent, revised up from minus 25.5 percent.

"With the WLI declining again, it is premature to objectively declare that the worst of the recession will soon be behind us," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI...

The WLI level and its growth rate can sometimes move in different directions, because growth is derived from a four-week moving average.
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