A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



U.S. Economic Recovery is 'Far from Fragile'

A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth climbed higher in the latest week, while its yearly growth rate reached a new all-time high, reaffirming projections of a brisk, uninterrupted recovery.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to a 60-week high of 127.8 in the week to Sept. 18 from an downwardly revised 126.1 the previous week, which was originally reported as 126.2.

It was the highest WLI reading since July 25, 2008, when it also stood at 127.8.

The index's yearly growth rate rose to a fresh record high of 24.3 percent from last week's high of 22.9 percent.

Last week, ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan told Reuters that the group expects an "unstoppable" recovery with "no relevant roadblocks." Fears over mounting unemployment, debt-laden consumers, and dips in recovery are typical of recessionary times, he said.

"With WLI growth climbing to a fresh record high, the economic recovery is far from fragile," Achuthan said on