A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



U.K. FIG Edges Higher

Upward pressure on British inflation resumed in July after several months of decline, a leading indicator of inflation showed on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), a New York-based group that focuses on turning points in the business cycle, said its UK Future Inflation Gauge rose to 104.8 in July from 104.6 in June.

Its smoothed annualised growth rate rose to -1.0 percent from -1.4 percent in June.

It said that, if the FIG continued to rise, a cyclical upswing in infation would soon be underway.

RPIX, the main official measure of inflation, was steady at 2.9 percent in July -- above the government-set 2.5 percent target -- although many analysts predict it to fall further in coming months.