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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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U.K. FIG Down from Autumn


A leading indicator of underlying inflation in Britain rose again in December after a fall in November, a leading research body said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), a New York-based body that specialises in monitoring turning points in the business cycle, said its Future Inflation Gauge rose to 104.9 in December from a downwardly revised 104.3 in November.

"The one-month uptick comes mostly from a rebound in raw materials price growth," said Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI's managing director.

"The U.K. FIG is down from its autumn readings, and if this decline continues U.K. inflation is also likely to decline in the coming months."

The official rate of underlying inflation, RPIX, which excludes mortgage interest payments, stood at 2.7 percent in December.