A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



The 'new' new economy

"Anirvan Banerji, of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, New York, who last fall predicted something very like a recession (Grant's, October 27), is anything but certain that one has actually begun. He does note, however, that his institute's Weekly Leading Index has just hit a 10-year low.

The great irony of the millennial downturn, Banerji goes on, is that the rapid (and hedonically assisted) growth in high-tech investment has made the GDP much more volatile. In that respect - as in so many others - the new economy looks more and more like the old."