Recession Update
For the past three months, year-over-year real personal income growth has stayed lower than it was at the start of each of the last ten recessions.
A Framework That Provides Clarity
During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.
For the past three months, year-over-year real personal income growth has stayed lower than it was at the start of each of the last ten recessions.
Has personal income growth ever remained this low for three months without the economy going into recession? More
ECRI's Achuthan talks with Henry Blodget about ECRI's recession call. More
ECRI principals will be in Oslo to meet with professional members on June 4, 2012.
March 21, 2012
Full Report: U.S. Cyclical Outlook