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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Predicting record-breaking expansion is fantasy


ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan spoke with Gerri Willis about why budget predictions, based on presumptions of a record-breaking pace of growth and length of the expansion, is just fantasy.

Econometric model forecasts used by the Administration, their opponents, and the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office are all understating the likelihood of more frequent recessions in the coming decade.
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