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During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Leading Housing Price Index


Economic forecasters at The Economic Cycle Research Institute say their models offer no evidence of a so-called "housing bubble."

Citing its leading home price index, which monitors home prices and is designed to predict a downturn, ECRI stated in a report Wednesday that "there is nothing anomalous about the current rise in home prices."

"I think this gives pretty clear evidence that the rise in house prices is not a sign that there is a bubble about to pop," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

"While there are sharp increases in home prices in certain parts of the country and these may constitute bubbles, there is little evidence that there is any housing bubble on a national scale that is about to pop."

ECRI reported three week ago that it sees "no double dip (for the economy as a whole) or deflation in sight."

On the other hand, ECRI sees a much less upbeat story in place for the nonresidential construction sector. However, this measure typically lags other economic indicators in business cycles, according to ECRI's analysis.
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