A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Last Week's Update: WLI Slips

A gauge of the U.S. economy moved a tad lower lower last week, a report showed on Friday.

In the week to June 6, the Economic Cycle Research Institute said its weekly leading index fell to 123.2 from 123.6 in the prior week.

"The good news is there is no new recession imminent. However, the pace of growth is unlikely to generate many jobs," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI.

The index's growth rate, a four-week moving average that evens out weekly fluctuations, rose to a 5.5 percent high -- the highest in almost a year -- from 5.2 percent.

"We are firmly on track for a continued mild recovery," Achuthan added.

The weekly leading index is composed of several major economic indicators. ECRI designs short- and long-term indexes aimed at predicting business cycles, recessions and recoveries in the world's leading economies.