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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Jobs: As Good as it Gets


(Full report received by Pro clients on 18-May-11)

From February to April 2011 the three-month moving average of private sector payroll jobs growth ran up to around 0.7%, and that’s about as good as it gets. Over the past decade every time we get to that pace, job growth slows in short order.

More importantly, ECRI’s leading indexes have been throttling back for a while now, pointing to another slowdown in overall U.S. growth.