A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Inflation Pressures Tick Up

U.S. inflation pressures rose in November, pushed up by inflationary moves... a report said on Friday.

The increase was partly offset by a disinflationary move in a measure of home loans, said the report by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

Its U.S. Future Inflation Gauge, which is designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, rose to 119.4 in November from a revised 118.8 in October, revised down from 119.9 in October.

"Despite its November uptick, the USFIG remains well below its October 2005 high," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI. "Thus, underlying inflationary pressures remain in a cyclical downtrend."

The index's annualized growth rate, which smoothes out monthly fluctuations, rose to minus 3.4 percent from a revised minus 5.1 percent in October, revised down from 3.7 percent in October.