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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

News

 

Indian Leading Index Rises


The ECRI Indian Leading Index, designed to anticipate Indian economic recessions and recoveries, rose to 183.5 in November 2002 from 182.6 in October.

Its growth rate also climbed to 20.5% in November, slightly below the 20-month high of 22.1% achieved in October. These increases in the leading index are a precursor of strong economic growth and are therefore indicative of persistence in the current economic recovery.

Thus, economic growth is likely to improve further in the coming months.

[I]f the geo-political situation were to be resolved relatively expeditiously in favour of the US, as many on Wall Street seem to expect, confidence would rebound and the economy would strengthen, bolstering the nascent recoveries in Japan and Germany. This could trigger a synchronous global expansion that would soak up global overcapacity much faster than currently projected.