A Framework That Provides Clarity
During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.
Many think recessions are some sort of "failure," and, if policy makers just did the "right thing," they could stave off recession indefinitely, meaning they could repeal the business cycle.
The convergence of two cyclical patterns virtually dictates an era of more frequent recessions in developed economies. As a result, and because of the Bullwhip Effect, growth in developing economies is going to be jerked around more than people think, making for a good deal of cyclical economic contagion. In other words, we are now in the yo-yo years.
Has personal income growth ever remained this low for three months without the economy going into recession? More
For the past three months, year-over-year real personal income growth has stayed lower than it was at the start of each of the last ten recessions. More
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