A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Eurozone Price Pressures Dip

Euro zone inflation pressures eased a bit in July but remained close to five year highs, the Economic Cycle Research Institute said on Friday.

ECRI's Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge, which forecasts cyclical turns in inflation across the 12-nation bloc, edged down to 105.1 in July from 105.3 in June.

"The EZFIG slipped in July, but remains close to April's five-and-a-half year high, suggesting euro zone inflationary pressures are still fairly strong," ECRI said in a release.

The European Central Bank on Thursday lifted its mid-point for inflation to 2.4 percent this year and next from 2.3 percent. It held rates at 3.0 percent as widely expected, but hinted at further rises to come to combat rising inflation.

ECRI said inflation pressures eased in Spain and Italy, but a dip in the central gauge was offset by rises in Germany and France, the two largest economies in the euro zone.

The German FIG hit a 5-1/2 year high of 92.3 in July, up from 90.8 in June, which ECRI said suggested inflationary pressures there were still in a cyclical upturn.

The euro zone gauge uses a weighted average of ECRI's indices for Germany, France, Italy and Spain...