A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Euro zone inflation pressures hold at 39-month low

Euro zone inflation will ease in the coming months after price pressures held at a more than three-year low in May, an indicator designed to predict cyclical trends showed.

The Eurozone Future inflation Gauge (EZFIG), published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute, held at April's 39-month low of 90.7.

"Euro zone inflation will remain in a downswing in the months ahead," said Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI's chief operations officer.

However, preliminary official data earlier this week showed consumer prices were being driven up by volatile energy and food prices. Inflation rose to 1.6 percent year-on-year in June from 1.4 percent in May.

June's inflation reading was the second upward move from a three-year low of 1.2 percent in April, although it remains beneath the European Central Bank's target of just under 2 percent.