A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



End to U.S. Recession Now in Clear Sight

A weekly measure of U.S. future economic growth rose along with its annualized growth rate, indicating imminent economic recovery, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index ticked up to a 13-week high of 107.7 for the week ending April 24 from 107.2 in the previous week.

The index's annualized growth rate also climbed to minus 17.4 percent from the prior week's rate of minus 18.6 percent.

"With the level of the WLI in an upswing for seven weeks now, an end to the U.S. recession is now in clear sight," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI...