A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



ECRI WLI Growth Falls

A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose to a 2-week high in the latest week even as the annualized growth rate decreased to an 8-week low, a research group said on Wednesday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 125.7 in the week ended Nov. 16 from 125.2 the previous week. That was its highest since Nov. 2. 

The previous week's number was originally reported as 125.4.

The index's annualized growth rate, however, fell to 3.8 percent from 4.3 percent a week earlier. It hit its lowest since Sept. 21.

Related News & Events

The Tell-Tale Chart

ECRI December 7, 2012

Reviewing the indicators used to officially decide U.S. recession dates, it looks like the recession began around July 2012. More


Recession Underway

Bloomberg November 29, 2012

Indicators used to determine official U.S. recession dates have been weakening since mid-2012. More