A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.




A measure of future U.S. economic growth edged higher last week, while the annualized growth rate slipped, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 130.7 in the week ended May 24 from 130.5 the previous week. That was originally reported as 130.6.

The index's annualized growth rate fell to 6.6 percent from  6.8 percent a week earlier.

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ECRI May 31, 2013

The latest drop in consumer spending is consistent with the recessionary plunge in yoy U.S. import growth into negative territory. More