A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.




A measure of future U.S. economic growth rose last week to its highest since April 2011, while the annualized growth rate also pulled a touch higher, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index inched up to 130.6 in the week ended April 19 from 130.5 the previous week. That was originally reported as 130.6.

The index's annualized growth rate improved to 6.8 percent from 6.6 percent.

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Nominal GDP Growth Falls Again

ECRI April 26, 2013

Yoy nominal GDP growth at or below 3.7% has been seen only in recessionary contexts. In Q1/2013, it slipped to 3.4% from 3.5% in Q4/2012. More