A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.




A measure of future U.S. economic expansion continued to improve last week, and the annualized growth rate reached its highest level in over a year, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  rose to 126.7 in the week ended Sept. 21 from a revised 125.3 the previous week. That was originally reported as 125.4.

The index's annualized growth rate jumped to 3.8 percent from 2.7 percent, hitting the highest level since June 2011.

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Nine months ago we knew that, sitting here today, most people probably would not realize that we are in recession – and we do believe we are in recession. More