A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



ECRI WLI Ticks Down

Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity is picking up strength after weakening throughout December.

According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 4.2% in the week ended Jan. 17, after rising 3.5% in the previous week, which was up from 2.3% in the week before that.

The index itself, however, fell to 133.9 from 134.3 in the previous week. ECRI says "occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average."

The December ECRI index growth rate slowed to 2.0% from 2.9% in November.


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