A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.




A measure of future U.S. economic expansion increased to its highest level since April 2011, while the annualized growth rate also strengthened, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 130.6 in the week ended April 12 from a revised 130.2 the previous week, which was originally reported as 130.1.

The index's annualized growth rate rose to 6.6 percent, a three-week high, from 6.4 percent a week earlier. The previous week's figure was revised from an initial reading of 6.2 percent.

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Nominal GDP Growth Falls Again

ECRI April 26, 2013

Yoy nominal GDP growth at or below 3.7% has been seen only in recessionary contexts. In Q1/2013, it slipped to 3.4% from 3.5% in Q4/2012. More