A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Steady

Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity continues to trend upward in early 2014.

According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 4.3% in the week ended January 24, up from 4.2% growth in the previous week.

The index itself was unchanged at 133.8. ECRI says "occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average."

The December ECRI index growth rate slowed to 2.0% from 2.9% in November.


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Secular Stagnation

Fox Business News January 22, 2014

GDP growth (yoy) has been less than 2% for four straight quarters, something we've never seen except during or right after a recession. More


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