A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



ECRI WLI Growth Slows

A measure of future U.S. economic growth picked up slightly last week but the annualized growth rate fell to its lowest in 39 weeks, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 131.5 in the week ended Aug. 30, its highest in four weeks. It stood at 131.3 the previous week.

The index's annualized growth rate dipped to 3.9 percent, the lowest since November 30, 2012. It stood at 4.2 percent a week earlier.

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BBC Interview on Jobs

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Price Pressures Ease Further

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Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge holds at 40-month low

Reuters September 6, 2013

The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge (EZFIG) held steady in July at June's 40-month low, so "Eurozone inflation is likely to remain in a cyclical downswing in the months ahead." More