A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.




A measure of future U.S. economic growth declined in the latest week, although the annualized growth rate rose to its highest since May 2011, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  fell to a two week low at 126.7 in the week ended Oct 12 from 127.6 the previous week. That was originally reported as 127.7.

The index's annualized growth rate rose to 6.1 percent from  5.7 percent a week earlier. That was the highest since the week of May 20, 2011, when it was 6.2 percent.

The weekly leading indicator level and the growth rate can move in different directions because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average.