A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.




A measure of future U.S. economic expansion eased modestly last week though the annualized growth rate continued to climb, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged down to 126.3 in the week ended Sept. 28 from a revised 126.6 the previous week. 

The previous week's number was originally reported as 126.7. The index's annualized growth rate rose to 4.7 percent - its highest level since June 2011 - from 3.8 percent. 

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U.K. Future Inflation Gauge Subdued

ECRI October 5, 2012

While ticking up in August, the UKFIG stayed near June's 35-month low. Thus, U.K. inflation pressures are still subdued. More