A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.




A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week, while the annualized growth rate rose, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based  independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index  fell to 121.9 in the week ended July 13 from 122.9 the previous  week. That was originally reported as 123.2.

The index's annualized growth rate rose to -2.3 percent from -2.7 percent a week earlier. That was originally reported as -2.2 percent.

Related News & Events

Recession Here

Bloomberg July 10, 2012

It takes time to realize that a recession has already begun. More


Cold Facts Are Getting in Investors' Way

New York Times July 15, 2012

"...sometime at the end of the year or early next year the data will be revised and we'll start to get some clarity about when the recession actually started." More