A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Euro Inflation Pressures Remain Low

Euro zone inflation should fall in the coming months, according to an indicator designed to forecast trends in inflation, which showed price pressures eased in September to close to June's 27-month low.

The Eurozone Future Inflation Gauge (EZFIG), produced by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), fell to 93.4 from 94.2 in August, data showed on Friday. Similar national gauges rose in Spain and Italy, but fell in Germany and held steady in France.

"The EZFIG remains in a cyclical downtrend. Thus, euro zone inflation pressures are still quite feeble," said Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI's chief operating officer.

Flash headline inflation in the 17-nation currency bloc eased to 2.5 percent in October but unemployment rose to new record highs in September, official data showed on Wednesday.

That and flagging growth prospects will prompt the European Central Bank to ease monetary policy further early next year, according to a slim majority of economists polled by Reuters.


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