A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.




Growth in a weekly leading index designed to forecast U.S. economic activity picked up last week.

According to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, its weekly leading index grew 3.3% in the week ended April 4, from 3.0% in the previous week.

The index itself increased to 134.9 from 133.5.

ECRI said "occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average."

The March ECRI index growth rate strengthened to 2.9% from 1.6% in February, but was still down from 4.0% in January.

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