A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



U.S. Weekly Leading Index Rises

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index rose to 133.2 from 132.8. The growth rate increased to -0.7% from -1.3%.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, please see the chart below:

Related Insights

The "Subpar" Recovery: a Longstanding Misunderstanding

ECRI January 1, 2015

There is a near-universal consensus that the U.S. has experienced a "subpar" recovery from the Great Recession. But the pace of that revival has been fairly consistent with historical patterns. In other words, nothing more by way of growth is owed to us by the business cycle.


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Minsky Conference Slides with Notes

ECRI April 23, 2015

A record plunge in oil price volatility played a key role in moderating economic cycle volatility in the 2011-13 period. More