A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



U.S. Weekly Leading Index Decreased

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) decreased to 135.8 from 136.1. The growth rate ticked down to 5.9% from 6.1%.

The U.S. economic slowdown is set to continue, as the latest WLI upturn is not sufficiently pronounced, pervasive and persistent – the three P’s – to qualify as a true cyclical upturn. Rather, it partly reflects the run-up in the markets as the early-2016 recession fears among the consensus faded, with the Fed backing off its rate hike plans, the dollar weakening, and some data beating significantly lowered expectations.

To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- watch Lakshamn Achuthan's interview with Tom Keene at Bloomberg TV.

- read ECRI's "Rate Hike “Cycle” Remains Unlikely". 

See the longer term U.S. WLI chart for recent moves in context:

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