A Framework That Provides Clarity
During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.
The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) decreased to 138.6 from 139.6. The growth rate edged down to 8.0% from 9.2%.
To put the economy in perspective please see links below:
- watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on Reuters.
- read ECRI's "Early” and “Late” Cycle Verdicts are Baseless"
- read ECRI's "Fed Moves in Mysterious Ways"
For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:
Slowdown almost 2 years old, but no recession imminent. More
It's illogical to assert that the likely duration of an expansion is around six to ten years merely because the last three U.S. expansions lasted that long. More
U.S. WLI (monthly data) increased to 137.0, growth rate rose to 8.0%. More
October 27, 2016
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