A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Virtually Unchanged

ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) virtually unchanged at 144.3, and the growth rate ticks down to 2.7% from 2.8%.

To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- watch Anirvan Banerji's current interview on Reuters.

- read ECRI's "Phillips Curveball".

- read Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji's op-ed on Bloomberg.

Related News & Events

Finding the Root Cause of Recessions

Bloomberg August 25, 2017

Two things bear most of the blame: external shocks and economic volatility. More


Flashback: Declining Productivity in Construction

ECRI August 24, 2017

ECRI readers have long known that manufacturing and construction productivity has been falling for six years, dragging down overall productivity growth. More


Phillips Curveball

ECRI July 31, 2017

It is the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge, "not the Phillips curve", that provides early warning of an inflation upturn. More


Weekly Leading Index Points to Slowing

ECRI August 8, 2017

Monthly data for ECRI's U.S. WLI shows it rose, while its growth rate ticked down to a 16-month low. More


Interview: Jobs, Inflation & the Fed

Reuters August 4, 2017

Central banks like the Fed are misled by their belief that a lower jobless rate equals higher inflation. More