A Framework That Provides Clarity
During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.
ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) virtually unchanged at 144.3, and the growth rate ticks down to 2.7% from 2.8%.
To put the economy in perspective please see links below:
- watch Anirvan Banerji's current interview on Reuters.
- read ECRI's "Phillips Curveball".
- read Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji's op-ed on Bloomberg.
Two things bear most of the blame: external shocks and economic volatility. More
ECRI readers have long known that manufacturing and construction productivity has been falling for six years, dragging down overall productivity growth. More
It is the U.S. Future Inflation Gauge, "not the Phillips curve", that provides early warning of an inflation upturn. More
Monthly data for ECRI's U.S. WLI shows it rose, while its growth rate ticked down to a 16-month low. More
Central banks like the Fed are misled by their belief that a lower jobless rate equals higher inflation. More
August 2, 2017
Full Report: U.S. Focus
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