A Framework That Provides Clarity
During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.
ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) ticks up to 144.5 from 144.3, and the growth rate slips to 2.5% from 2.8%. 
To put the economy in perspective please see links below:
- read ECRI's "Womenomics Falls Short for Japan".
- watch Anirvan Banerji's interview on Reuters.
- read ECRI's "Phillips Curveball".
For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:
Two things bear most of the blame: external shocks and economic volatility. More
ECRI readers have long known that manufacturing and construction productivity has been falling for six years, dragging down overall productivity growth. More
The long-term shift to non-regular work arrangements may actually exacerbate Japan's demographic challenges. More
U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate ticks down to 2.7%. More
Central banks like the Fed are misled by their belief that a lower jobless rate equals higher inflation. More
August 2, 2017
Full Report: U.S. Focus
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