A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up

ECRI’s U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) ticks up to 144.5 from 144.3, and the growth rate slips to 2.5% from 2.8%.

To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- read ECRI's "Womenomics Falls Short for Japan".

- watch Anirvan Banerji's interview on Reuters.

- read ECRI's "Phillips Curveball".

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Related News & Events

Finding the Root Cause of Recessions

Bloomberg August 25, 2017

Two things bear most of the blame: external shocks and economic volatility. More


Flashback: Declining Productivity in Construction

ECRI August 24, 2017

ECRI readers have long known that manufacturing and construction productivity has been falling for six years, dragging down overall productivity growth. More


Womenomics Falls Short for Japan

ECRI August 14, 2017

The long-term shift to non-regular work arrangements may actually exacerbate Japan's demographic challenges. More


Weekly Leading Index Virtually Unchanged

ECRI August 11, 2017

U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth rate ticks down to 2.7%. More


Interview: Jobs, Inflation & the Fed

Reuters August 4, 2017

Central banks like the Fed are misled by their belief that a lower jobless rate equals higher inflation. More